Japanese Derby Prediction ’23

– Forecasting the Competitive Race, Popular Horses, and Dark Horses: Insider-san’s M’s Law-based Predictions –

This year’s Derby is shaping up to be a highly competitive race with evenly matched abilities. It’s a race where you should overlook the popular horses and go all-in on the dark horses. Recommended dark horses (starting from the inside gates) are:

Bellagio Opera, Top Knife, Metal Speed, Hearts Concerto, Duraelade

I plan to purchase a trifecta box with these five horses, covering the exacta, quinella, and trifecta.

Here are detailed comments on both popular horses and dark horses:

Popular Horses

Skillving
As the winner of the challenging Aoba Sho, I’m not keen on betting on him for win as he seemed to have given a decent performance in his previous race. While he is likely to make it to the top ranks given his target route and consecutive rides by Lemaire, if you’re a believer in dark horses, you may want to actively exclude him!

Soul Oriens
Although the race conditions favored him in the Satsuki Sho, his performance was impressive. He displayed a high level of performance on the demanding uphill track of Nakayama, so I have doubts about whether he can replicate that in the completely different Derby. If you’re a fan of dark horses, you may not want to actively bet on him.

Tastierra
He finished 2nd in the Satsuki Sho, maneuvering skillfully on the tight-turning track. However, I don’t think he can win in this contrasting Derby scenario. Nevertheless, I have a feeling that he will make it to the top ranks regardless of the race flow!

Phantom Thief
Despite being the favorite in the Satsuki Sho, he finished 3rd. While there were quite a few unfavorable conditions in the Satsuki Sho, he seemed to have lost adequately in preparation for the Derby. I believe he has a good chance of making a comeback.

Dark Horses

Bellagio Opera
In the previous race, he struggled in the heavy ground of the Satsuki Sho while leading from the front. I think he’s more suited for the Satsuki Sho than the Derby, but if he can leverage his experience of handling a high-paced race and if there’s an advantage to the inner draw, he could be an interesting dark horse.

Top Knife
Among these contenders, he has the highest rankings. After a respectable loss in the Satsuki Sho, he has reset his stress with consecutive 2nd place finishes. He has plenty of experience running against the main contenders, and he seems to be running comfortably. Nori is likely eyeing this race, considering his participation in the Satsuki Sho, and his training has been impressive. I have high expectations for him!

Metal Speed
He held up well even when running against the top horses of his generation, so if Tsujimura can add some spice by not rushing for the win and instead find openings on the inside, he has a chance to be in the money.

Hearts Concerto
He is from the formidable Aoba Sho group, and he finished 2nd. However, I believe he will finish ahead of Skillving this time. Although he may not win, he has been used at appropriate intervals, and his jumping ability is remarkable. He is suited for the Derby, and he shares the same sire as last year’s Dou Deuces, which is Hearts Cry’s children! I think he has a chance to win or be in the top positions!

Duraelade
He was a long shot winner in the Hopeful Stakes and finished 2nd in the UAE Derby. He was aimed for the Kentucky Derby but couldn’t participate, so he had no choice but to run in the Japanese Derby. The jockey is a rental car, changing every time, a completely unknown factor. He has the same sire as Liberty Island, who showed a high-performance in the Oaks last week. His training looks good, and I want to bet on him.